LESSON FROM AN EXPERT

by John Thomson© - The Negotiator

Reference: Thomson 2022.04: Mindfulness; Negotiating With Situational Awarness

MINDFULNESS

Negotiating With Situational Awareness

by John Thomson - The Negotiator ©

Theory, Observation and Implication

The ‘ripple effect’ is an analogy of how a single event or action can initiate a chain of consequences that expand outward, influencing various systems or stakeholders. Without early intervention its dynamics illustrate how initial disruptions can escalate, leading to broader impacts on processes, resources, and relationships. Understanding this phenomenon is crucial for effectively managing and mitigating risks associated with such cascading effects.

This lesson note provides insight into the complexities of this phenomenon and is a must understood principal for all mediators, negotiators and arbitrators.

Like the simple observation of a stone dropping into water, the ripple illustrates how an initial disturbance generates waves that expand outward in increasingly larger circles. This physical example exemplifies how the inter-connectedness and interdependence of actions and decisions, whether positive or negative, as a ripple can spread through social, economic, psychological, and organizational systems and, how their far-reaching impacts influence people and environments unconnected with the initial event. While negotiating in a critical event environment most negotiators pursue fiscal and asset protection without considering brand protection, reputational damage, sector responses and the human contribution and personal cost to those in conflict.

The character and energy of the decisions or actions that create the initial ripple are carried within the disturbance. The larger the ripple, the more encompassing it becomes, instigating further unplanned and unanticipated disturbances as it interacts with new environments and individuals.

Christaki's and Fowler’s research discovered that the ripple effect proportionally decays over time and across social distances but persists and influences to ‘six degrees of separation.’ Decay occurs when others seeing it coming, act preemptively to manage secondary consequences, thereby absorbing the energy of the initial impact.

Positive or negative social communications impacted by 'the ripple' can lead to significant policy implications and trigger critical behavioural changes in the population. Evidenced in the aftermath of natural disasters and wars and, most recently, in the post-COVID response the fiscal impact of the COVID policies have created market volatility, high interest rates, unemployment, supply chain disruption, and widespread civil unrest.

‘Ground swell movements’ are linear social demands for change and ideology. For example, the ‘#Me Too’ social movement was a public awareness campaign against sexual abuse, harassment and rape culture leading to high social vigilance and problem awareness.

Ground swell movements, like the ‘domino effect’ are predictable linear continuum's of a single principal or ideology. The domino effect shaped U.S. policy during the Vietnam War while . One action sets off a chain reaction of similar events leading to the collapse of the entire system. Fearing an expansion of communism through Asia the domino effect shaped U.S. policy during the Vietnam War and the 'Black Lives Matter' ground swell movement arose from one Police Officers actions, all examples of the ripple.

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look deep into nature and then you will understand everything better

Albert Einstein

Ripples are unpredictable because they possess energy hidden within them. While traveling uninterrupted their energy is hidden below the surface but have the potential for significant escalation and disruption when they impact other ripples, most often created by unrelated events and unrelated people.

Understanding the hidden energy within conflicts is critical for managing wider influences that create surprise, suddenly redirection, or escalate conflict. No one has a crystal ball, nor are we fore-tellers, but too often, I have heard mediators, negotiators, and conciliators say, “I did not see that coming!”

Ripples Make Or Break

As stated, ripples are unpredictable because they possess energy hidden within them. Most people consider conflict an adversary, the disruption of the status quo destabilizing predictable norms and live lives of mediocrity or entrenched anxiety in anticipation of an as yet undiscovered chaotic event. while other accept disruption as a necessary catalyst to extinguish redundant systems.

Understanding the nature of the hidden energy can be averted from destructive energy to creative opportunity for revitalization, redirection and rationalization. Those with a positive attitude towards change create opportunity to review and strengthen processes and standards, viewing conflict and disruption as an evolutionary process crucial for further developing societies and systems and enhancing their own maturity and abilities.

Universal laws are also consistent with human behavioural characteristics.

Newtons Third Laws of Motion is, ‘for every action in nature there is an equal and opposite reaction.’ Understanding ‘universal laws of movement’ and how they operate across physical, spiritual, social and political contexts must be considered when assessing and instigating remediation or resolution within conflicting environments and systems.

Although these dynamics are more easily understood in music, tensions (ie: wire ad strings), air column and electromagnetic waves, the ripple effect is also found in human behaviour as an unstable and complex interconnected mix of personality, character, and reaction and the actions and activity in external unrelated people and events.

The multi-dimensional elements of a ripple hold the potential for significant, and sudden dynamic and chaotic upheaval. These large surprise events are the result of constructive interference. Mitigating interventions applied at the appropriate tiers (within the six tiers of influence) can harness and neutralize constructive interference through the timely intervention of destructive interference.

Beyond the scope of this lesson, students should investigate concepts and theory including ‘social construction (momentum) theory’, ‘cultural resonance’ and ‘causes for conflict and reformation.’ Briefly summerised, the consequences of conflict or chaotic events are often measured by post-event analysis (after the event) and defined as collateral damage. Collateral loss could include fiscal or capital assets loss, lives lost, disruption to society, and, in marriages, relationship breakdown consequences.

Unlike the narrow field of an insurance assessor, mediators and negotiators play a crucial role in resolving conflicts and minimizing collateral damage. They must have skills as psychologists, sociologists, behavioural therapists, critical events managers, advisors, ‘empathetic confidants’ and generally, 'all things to all people.'

Understanding Wave Dynamic

On an ocean, a ripple (or swell) is visual evidence of energy moving through a water column and can be measured using height, frequency, speed and length (E∝H2). If a swell is two times larger than another, the more significant swell has four times the energy. This formula is also recognised as a ‘behavioural paradox’ that applies to human reactions and behaviour, causing the complexity and behavioural dynamics within conflict environments to increase exponentially.

The energy in a conflict is hidden within the motivations, ambitions, goals and psychological disposition of those involved or impacted by an event. How you (as mediator or negotiator) feel or react towards an event should not be the same as the actions of those within it. Herein lays the difference between empathetic and sympathetic involvement. Empathetic evaluation is connected understanding of the parties involved motivations and reactions while sympathetic involvement is to stoop into a reactive response to the critical event and participate as an equal with the participants, a sure recipe for a disastrous outcome.

Those inside a conflict are reason for the negative energy and will react and make decisions inconsistent with your anticipated path to resolution. This complexity challenges us to consider ‘others’, as Maya Angelou’s famous quote suggests, “most people and most things are never what they seem to be. Being, not meant to be, yet teach us how to be,”

The weakness of the mediation process is that there are few inputs a mediator can make to stop the ripple, the mediator being an umpire between two (or more) conflicting participants. Notwithstanding the inability to directly intervene. it is crucial that mediators and negotiators proactively investigate peripheral contributors to conflicts, rather than re-actively respond to them. This proactive approach is often hindered by misplaced perceptions of the limitations of their roles, duties, and responsibilities to their clients.

In high-dynamic conflicts, I advise conflicting parties to shift from mediation to negotiated strategies, where I can contribute with inputs and recommend pre-emptive action to arrest the impact of converging conflicts and peripheral or unrelated stimuli. While this requires investigative assessment, risk modelling, and high levels of communication between the parties, I have achieved acclaimed results within the corporate and banking sectors.

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This phenomenon was captured in the movie The Perfect Storm, where, in 1991, three separate weather systems converged off the Nova Scotia seaboard, causing waves of disproportionate height and unpredictable behaviour which bought about the loss of the fishing vessel Andrea Gail and all thirteen crew.

Another example is when an aircraft breaks through the sound barrier, the slower sound waves collide with faster compressed sound waves, creating a sonic boom (amplified sound wave) approximately four times louder than the noise of the aircraft in routine flight.

Destructive Interference:

Destructive interference neutralises the impact and influence of colliding waves, their energies being absorbed and effectively cancelling each other out. This occurs when the crest of one wave aligns with the trough of the other (high plus low = neutral), resulting in destructive interference and the wave's destruction. The points of neutral displacement are known as nodes. Essentially, the energy of the higher portion of the wave fills the trough (lower half) in the other wave, nullifying its effect. Understanding this principal is the secret of successful mediation and negotiation.

Stop The Ripple

After a misunderstanding or misinterpretation, procrastination by conflicting parties can be a major factor in escalating a conflict. However, when we have the courage to act proactively with honesty and discipline, we can achieve a more favourable outcome for all parties involved in the conflict resolution.

The quick implementation of a SWOT-style analysis of the client’s position should be undertaken. The 5Ws of assessment — what, where, when, and who — are often at odds with the clients' need to discuss 'why.' 'Why,' often entwines justifications, excuses, blame, accusations, and conflicting claims. By the time they reach out to me, the ripple effect has typically already begun, with other people's actions and events taking on a life of their own. The risk converging conflicts create and how they intensify compounded interference becomes a real possibility and should be of significant concern to a negotiator or conciliator. If no steps are taken the consequences can be wide-ranging and potentially severe. (For further information refer to Ref CRMC008 SWOT for Mediators and Negotiators)

Consistent with this subject, 'the ripple,' part of the SWOT process is to integrate an assessment of the following into each facet of the analysis process and to profile the people both directly and indirectly involved.

I use a checklist to assess a client's position, focusing on the following possibilities.

Escalation: Without immediate intervention, the initial problem could escalate, capture secondary parties, risk relational and reputational damage, cause cost overruns and fiscal risk, impact mental and physical health, and escalate broader issues within the crisis.

Disruption: As the effects spread, other unrelated social, economic, technological, or ecological environments could experience significant disruption or destruction.

Resource Demand: What must be done to mitigate a resource drain as more investments are required to deal with escalating problems?

Financial Loss: What are the financial impacts, including loss of revenue, increased costs for damage control, and legal liabilities?

Reputational Damage: Anyone else linked to the issue could suffer reputational harm, leading to a loss of trust and credibility with stakeholders and clients.

Environmental Degradation: What environmental impacts lead to increased pollution, biodiversity loss, or resource depletion, affecting wildlife, water quality or viable agricultural land?

Social Unrest: What would cause social consequences, public unrest and criminal behaviour, especially in vulnerable communities? This may require management of press releases and accurate reporting to prevent the spread of misinformation.

Health Impacts: Governments tend to be concerned with the wider public spread of disease or unaddressed public health risks. Mediators and negotiators should focus on their clients' psychological and mental health.

Legal and Regulatory Repercussions: What could be the legal consequences or regulatory actions as authorities seek to enforce compliance and safety measures post-crisis?

Long-term Negative Impacts: The longer the issue persists without intervention, the more profound and long-lasting its adverse effects can be, potentially requiring years of recovery.

Summary

The ripple effect illustrates the inter-connectedness of universal structures across ecological, economic, social, or organizational systems, and how change in one part of a system can trigger widespread repercussions in another. Understanding this phenomenon is crucial for effective management of a conflict as it highlights the importance of correctly assessing and managing systemic relationships when addressing changes or challenges.

From individual stress and relational strain to organizational dysfunction and social unrest, the impact of procrastination to seek informed wise resolution counsel and taking immediate steps to mitigate risk can lead to significant escalation, material loss and relationship damage.

Understanding what is required to implement effective strategies for engagement can mitigate adverse effects and foster quicker and healthier conflict resolution processes.

When Two Ripples Collide

As two waves converge, their interference on each other can be constructive or destructive depending on their resonance and interaction point.

The Multiplier - Constructive Interference:

Multiplier waves emerge when two waves of the same frequency and amplitude travelling in opposite directions intersect and create a ‘standing wave’ and occur when the crest of one wave aligns with the crest of another (or trough with trough), leading to ‘constructive interference.’ Instead of cancelling each other, they create exceptional wave oscillation and energy shifts. In water, the energy is upward; in electromagnetic (radio, laser, etc) and light waves, the energy moves three-dimensionally in all directions.

At these points, the amplitudes of the waves create points of maximum displacement, known as antinodes.Multiplier waves add the energy of one wave to the other, multiplied to the power of four, and are so significant in oceanic environments that they are the waves mariners most fear.

References and Definitions

1 Nicholas Christakis: The Sterling Professor of Social and Natural Science at Yale University and author of four books.

James Fowler (deceased): Professor of Theology and Human Development at Emory University and Director at the Centre

for Research on Faith and Moral Development.

2 Maya Angelou; American memoirist, poet, author and civil rights activist. 1928-2014 With the publication of I Know Why the

Caged Bird Sings, Angelou publicly discussed aspects of her personal life. She was respected as a spokesperson for Black

people and women, and her works have been considered a defense of Black culture.

3 Constructive interference: When two energies moving in sequence and resonance with each other merge in a multiplied (x4) energy wave, thereby creating a larger wave.

4 Destructive interference: When two energies moving out of sequence and resonance merge, cancelling each other’s energy.

5 SWOT : Strengths, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat: In mediation and negotiation this includes, Actor Character and

Emotional Quotient, Fiscal, Asset and Psychological Risk Mitigation and Opportunity

General Research Information

Gladwell, M. (2000). The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference. Little, Brown and Company.

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About John Thomson

John Thomson is known as 'the negotiator.' He has been a successful practitioner since 1985 and has personally closed over 3,000 client contracts across all property, business and proprietary sectors and has a 94% resolution success rate as a mediator. Utilizing hybrid and unorthodox negotiation and resolution methodologies, John is intuitive and disciplined.

A Senior Partner at N.Z. Mediation Services and Consultant at John Thomson Consulting (Aust). is based in N.S.W. Australia but is a frequent flyer between Australia and New Zealand managing and advising a professional team of qualified mediators, negotiators and arbitrators in both countries.

A keynote, session and plenary speaker, mediation and negotiation lecturer and teacher, John is the authour of this lesson note which forms part of the Master Class Training Program. This lesson is provided free of charge to students, practitioners and persons interested in the science of mediation and negotiation.

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Lesson notes from THE NEGOTIATOR, are part of the CODE RED Training Program written and published by John Thomson Consulting. All rights reserved. International copyright and trademark laws cover the contents of this publication John Thomson (John Thomson Consulting: ABN 74325624056.) Students of Social Sciences, Law, Negotiation or Mediation may use material extracted from this note for learning and academic use with reference to John Thomson 2020:5